Box Office Guru Preview: Beowulf Set To Conquer Multiplexes

One animated film will bump another from the number one spot at the North American box office. But the new warrior Beowulf is no B movie but an A-list production from an Oscar-winning director offering action audiences something new. Also opening this weekend but likely to see more modest grosses are the family pic Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium and the romantic drama Love in the Time of Cholera. Without a compelling selection of great films, the marketplace should once again fall well below year-ago levels.

Paramount looks to capture the box office crown without the help of DreamWorks this time with Beowulf, a computer-animated action adventure based on the ancient epic poem. The PG-13 film comes from Robert Zemeckis who expands upon the motion capture technology he used in 2004's The Polar Express. This time around his film is aimed at somewhat older moviegoers as young children will be too frightened by the violence, gore, and yes, nudity. Beowulf aims to pry 14-year-old boys away from their videogame systems and into the multiplexes with a new type of action film that is presented in 3D in selected theaters. Ray Winstone, Anthony Hopkins, and Angelina Jolie lend their voices and digital likenesses.

The marketing has been terrific on the part of the studio. The core audience of young males is excited and ready to buy tickets and the film might even pull in part of the literary crowd curious to see how this classic tale is adapted to the big screen. The marketplace needs something like this now with hits like American Gangster skewing more adult and kidpics like Bee Movie not offering enough violence. If last December's Eragon could open to $23.2M, then surely Beowulf can target the same crowd and go higher. Launching in over 2,800 theaters, Beowulf could conquer the box office this weekend with about $32M.

The digitally-altered likeness of Ray Winstone in Beowulf
Dustin Hoffman stars as the eccentric owner of a magical toy store in Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium, a new entry for family audiences from Fox. The G-rated film co-stars Natalie Portman and Jason Bateman. With Bee Movie and Fred Claus already out there doing solid business, and likely to collect a combined $30M this weekend, competition for Emporium will be intense. Bad reviews will make parents hesitate, but if kids respond to the TV commercials, then they will find a way to force their parents to take them. Opening wide in around 3,200 locations, Mr. Magorium could bow to about $11M this weekend and try to remain a relevant choice over the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday session.

Dustin Hoffman and Natalie Portman in Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium
To counter his current role as a brutal killer in No Country for Old Men, Javier Bardem stars in the romantic drama Love in the Time of Cholera. The R-rated tale from New Line is getting a moderately wide release and will play to an older adult audience with a female skew. The Oscar buzz Bardem has been receiving for Country could rub off on Cholera helping its case. And Latino audiences are being counted on to show up as are fans of Oprah who has endorsed the book that the film is based on. But overall, the Columbia-set film has not generated enough excitement to deliver a solid debut. Plus poor reviews will turn away much of the target audience. A slot on the lower end of the top ten could await. Opening in about 800 theaters, Love in the Time of Cholera might gross around $3M over the weekend.

Love in the Time of Cholera
Bee Movie should fall from its spot at the top of the box office and slide by about 30% since there is not too much new competition for young kids. A weekend tally of $18M could result giving Paramount $97M to date. Universal's American Gangster should drop by 40% to about $14.5M giving the crime saga a total of $102M. The holiday comedy Fred Claus could dip by 35% in its second weekend. That would leave the Warner Bros. release with a weekend take of $12M and a ten-day cume of $35.5M.

LAST YEAR: In a major pre-holiday showdown, the penguin toon Happy Feet edged out the new James Bond film Casino Royale for the number one spot with a strong opening of $41.5M. The Warner Bros. family hit went on to collect $198M domestically and a stellar $384M worldwide. Sony's relaunched spy series still posted a muscular debut grossing $40.8M over the weekend on its way to $167M domestically and a sensational $595M globally making the Daniel Craig-starrer the top-grossing 007 flick ever. After two weeks on top, Fox's Borat slipped to third with $14.6M. Rounding out the top five were Disney's The Santa Clause 3 with $8.3M and the Sony release Stranger Than Fiction with $6.6M.

Source: www.cinema-pedia.com

Box Office Guru Wrapup: American Gangster Crushes Competition at #1

The North American box office exploded thanks to the scorching debuts of the Denzel Washington-Russell Crowe crime drama American Gangster and Jerry Seinfeld's animated comedy Bee Movie which combined for over $85M in ticket sales. Following weeks of sluggish business where the marketplace failed to match 2006 levels, this weekend's box office enjoyed a healthy bounce over last year and kicked off the holiday movie season with a bang.

Washington and Crowe both scored new career highs with the estimated $46.3M opening weekend for the crime saga American Gangster which dominated the multiplexes. Universal opened the R-rated tale in 3,054 theaters and generated a scorching $15,175 average per location. Directed by Ridley Scott, Gangster tells the true story of a drug kingpin who built up a heroin empire in Harlem in the early 1970s. The opening easily beat out the former all-time biggest debuts for the Oscar-winning actors: Washington's Inside Man with $29M and Crowe's Gladiator with $34.8M.

American Gangster enjoyed the second highest launch of the year for an R-rated film trailing only 300's $70.9M. Much of the success came from strong sales from young males and the urban audience which saw it as a Scarface for today's generation. The same audience also helped to power Eminem's R-rated hip hop drama 8 Mile to a surprising number one opening of $51.2M in November of 2002. Brian Grazer produced both Mile and Gangster. Reviews were mostly favorable and early Academy Award buzz could help the film in the weeks ahead. Despite the long running time of nearly two hours and forty minutes, moviegoers lined up and found their showtimes.

Paramount and DreamWorks settled for a second place debut for their latest animated film Bee Movie which grossed an estimated $39.1M in its opening weekend. The PG-rated toon averaged a sturdy $9,954 from 3,928 locations and performed just a bit below the levels of recent November animated titles. Last year, the penguin pic Happy Feet bowed to $41.5M while the previous year's Chicken Little launched with $40M. The two went on to gross $198M and $135.4M, respectively, from the North American market. Co-written by and starring Jerry Seinfeld, Bee Movie enjoyed virtually no competition in the current marketplace for family audiences. Critics were not too kind, but ticket buyers showed interest on the opening weekend. For 2007, the toon posted the fourth biggest debut for an animated film after Shrek the Third ($121.6M), The Simpsons Movie ($74M) and Ratatouille ($47M).

Suffering the largest sophomore drop in franchise history, Saw IV tumbled 65% from its top spot bow and grossed an estimated $11M. The Lionsgate title has still banked an impressive $51.1M in ten days and should finish with nearly $70M.

Buena Vista's Dan in Real Life fared much better in its second weekend dropping a slim 31% to an estimated $8.1M. With $23M in ten days, the romantic comedy might find its way to around $50M despite playing in less than 2,000 theaters.

Sony's vampire thriller 30 Days of Night declined by 42% and took in an estimated $4M lifting the total to $34.2M. Buena Vista's The Game Plan followed in sixth with an estimated $3.9M, off only 37%, for a cume to date of $82M.

Neglected and landing in seventh place was the new John Cusack drama Martian Child which opened with an estimated $3.7M. Playing in 2,020 locations, the PG-rated story of a man that adopts a boy who says he's from Mars averaged a pitiful $1,807 for New Line. Child was the seventh wide release in the past six weeks to debut with an average of less than $2,000.

Three adult-skewing fall pics followed. George Clooney's legal thriller Michael Clayton collected an estimated $2.9M, down 41%, for a sum of $33.2M for Warner Bros. Lionsgate's Why Did I Get Married? got hit hard by Denzel's arrival tumbling 52 to an estimated $2.7M. Cume is $51.2M. The Miramax mystery Gone Baby Gone captured an estimated $2.4M, off 37%, for a $14.9M total.

Warner Independent saw a solid platform bow for its documentary Darfur Now which saw an estimated $24,000 in ticket sales from only three theaters. Averaging $8,000 per venue, the Don Cheadle-narrated film will expand on Friday to more cities.

Three October titles fell sharply and left the top ten this weekend. Disney's latest re-release of Thee Nightmare Before Christmas saw its post-Halloween sales slump 55% to an estimated $1.5M for a cume of $12.8M. A $15M final seems likely. The Joaquin Phoenix/Mark Wahlberg drama We Own the Night fell 59% to an estimated $1.4M. The Sony release has taken in $27.7M and could make it to $30M. The spoof comedy The Comebacks grossed an estimated $1.5M, down 56%, and has collected a disappointing $11.9M for Fox. Look for a $13M final.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $124.1M which was up 14% from last year when Borat debuted in first place with $26.5M; and up 8% from 2005 when Chicken Little opened in the top spot with $40M.

Source: www.cinema-pedia.com

Box Office Guru Wrapup: Vampire Flick Scares Up #1 Debut

Bloodthirty vampires flew high, depressing dramas sank, and many holdovers held up well at the North American box office. The new horror flick 30 Days of Night easily ruled the charts while a handful of adult dramas were met with opening weekend sales that ranged from mild to embarrassing. Oscar-winning actresses Reese Witherspoon and Halle Berry both failed miserably with their new serious stories which were both shunned by ticket buyers. With so many fall offerings eating into each others' business, the overall marketplace remained sluggish as for the fifth consecutive weekend the top ten slumped below year-ago levels.

Sony commanded the top spot with its R-rated gorefest 30 Days of Night which opened with an estimated $16M over the Friday-to-Sunday period. Attacking 2,855 theaters, the vampires-in-Alaska pic averaged a solid $5,604 and tapped into a pre-Halloween box office that offered no major scary movies. The lack of competition helped the $30M Josh Hartnett starrer which brought out older teens, young adults, and genre fans. Days was based on a popular graphic novel and earned mixed reviews which is above average by horror picture standards.

Tyler Perry followed up his muscular top spot debut for his latest comedy Why Did I Get Married? with a strong second weekend hold dropping only 43% to an estimated $12.1M. After just ten days in theaters, the Lionsgate release has already collected a sturdy $38.9M which is just ahead of the $38.1M that Perry's first film Diary of a Mad Black Woman took in during its first ten days in 2005. Married suffered a smaller drop than his other films witnessed indicating that the filmmaker's latest entry could be reaching beyond its core African American audience. Diary fell 50% in its sophomore session while Madea's Family Reunion and Daddy's Little Girls tumbled by about 57% each. Married looks on course to reach a remarkable $65-70M which would be a new career high for Perry

 

Posting the smallest decline in the top ten once again was The Rock's hit family comedy The Game Plan which ranked third in its fourth weekend with an estimated $8.1M. That represented a slim drop of only 26% and boosted Disney's cume to $69.2M. The durable sensation ranks as the actor's second biggest hit in a lead role after The Scorpion King which took in $90.5M in 2002. Game Plan should easily surpass that mark and has not yet seen a drop of more than 35%.

 

Also holding up very well was George Clooney's legal thriller Michael Clayton which remained in fourth place with an estimated $7.1M. The Warner Bros. title dropped by only 32% and boosted its total gross to $22M matching its production budget. The marketplace was crowded with adult dramas targeting Clayton's audience so the strong hold was an impressive performance. Powerful reviews and good word-of-mouth contributed to the success. A final tally of $40-50M may result.

 

Two new films fought fiercely over the number five spot. Miramax estimated that its kidnapping thriller Gone Baby Gone would collect $6M over the weekend from 1,713 theaters for a mild $3,503 average. The directorial debut of Ben Affleck stars his brother Casey Affleck along with Morgan Freeman and Ed Harris and was greeted with stellar reviews from film critics. Produced for $19M, Gone faced tough competition from other adult dramas but could have legs in the weeks ahead.

 

Aiming for teens and young adults with a dose of immature spoof comedy was The Comebacks which grossed an estimated $5.9M for Fox. The PG-13 sports film enjoyed a much wider release in 2,812 venues and generated a dull $2,080 average. The debut was nowhere near the numbers that the studio has seen in the recent past with its other spoof comedies. Both Epic Movie from earlier this year and Date Movie from 2006 debuted to about $19M. Comebacks will be lucky to reach that amount overall.

 

Despite the weekend estimates reported by Miramax and Fox, three studios estimated that Comebacks edged out Gone Baby Gone by a slim margin over the weekend. Miramax's estimate factored in a 26% Saturday-to-Sunday decline while Fox's figure includes a more reasonable 38% drop. All other films in the top ten projected Sunday declines of 34% to 51%. Final box office grosses to be reported on Monday will tell which film truly earns the fifth-place spot. The position is valuable to studios for the publicity since many news outlets only report on the top five films each weekend and ignore anything below them.

Falling hardest among holdover titles was the Joaquin Phoenix/Mark Wahlberg crime thriller We Own the Night which dropped by 49% to an estimated $5.5M in its second weekend. The Sony release has banked $19.8M in ten days and looks headed for a mediocre finish of $30-33M.

Generating the hottest average in the top ten was the latest re-release of Tim Burton's creepy animated hit The Nightmare Before Christmas which debuted to an estimated $5.1M from only 564 theaters for a potent $9,122 average. The special 3D version was given a wider launch by Disney compared to this weekend a year ago when it opened in 168 theaters for a $3.3M weekend and sizzling $19,506 average. That re-release bagged $8.7M while its original 1993 run brought in $50M. With no other good options for parents other than the studio's own The Game Plan, Nightmare proved to be an exciting pre-Halloween option for families. The PG-rated film will only play for a limited three-week engagement and goes back into the Mouse House's vault soon after the pumpkin holiday.

Moviegoers ignored the terrorism drama Rendition despite its acclaimed cast allowing it to barely debut in the top ten. The New Line release opened to an estimated $4.2M from 2,250 locations for a horrible $1,856 average. It was Reese Witherspoon's first film since winning the Academy Award for Best Actress for 2005's Walk the Line, but fans were not biting. Jake Gyllenhaal, Meryl Streep, and Alan Arkin also starred in the R-rated story of a woman in search of her Egyptian-born husband who is captured by the CIA after being suspected of being a terrorist. Rendition was the third film in recent weeks dealing with Middle East issues and entered a marketplace flooded with serious adult dramas. Plus lukewarm reviews helped to make this a non-priority among ticket buyers this weekend.

Rounding out the top ten was the Ben Stiller comedy The Heartbreak Kid with an estimated $3.9M, off 46%, for a $32.1M cume for Paramount.

Halle Berry joined fellow Oscar-winning actress Reese in striking out with audiences with her new adult drama. The former Storm headlined the Paramount release Things We Lost in the Fire with Benicio Del Toro and attracted a measly $1.6M in business on opening weekend, according to estimates. Debuting in 1,142 locations, the R-rated film about a woman who befriends her dead husband's heroin-addicted pal averaged a pathetic $1,405. Reviews were generally favorable and studio research indicated that two-thirds of the audience consisted of women over 30. Fire cost a relatively low $16M to produce, but has a long road ahead of it in order to reach profitability.

Two additional films risked going nationwide and met with embarrassing results. The teen thriller Sarah Landon and the Paranormal Hour bowed to an estimated $560,000 from 1,115 theaters for a disastrous $502 average for Freestyle Releasing. Meanwhile, Rocky Mountain Pictures unleashed its animated pic The Ten Commandments in 830 sites and was met with only $480,000, according to estimates, for a horrible $578 average. Both films should find their primary audiences on DVD.

 

Focus saw a soft bow for its downbeat drama Reservation Road which debuted in just fourteen theaters for a weak estimate of $36,821 for a poor average of $2,630. The arthouse crowd was just not in the mood for this depressing drama about the death of a young boy which starred Joaquin Phoenix, Mark Ruffalo, Jennifer Connelly, and Mira Sorvino. Also hurting Road's performance were reviews that were far from glowing.

With all the new content in the multiplexes, five films were tossed out of the top ten over the weekend. The costume drama sequel Elizabeth: The Golden Age dropped 49% in its sophomore session to an estimated $3.1M giving Universal a weak $11.2M in ten days. Look for the Cate Blanchett pic to end its domestic run with a dismal $16-18M. Overseas prospects do look brighter though.

Sony's durable musical extravaganza Across the Universe dipped by 29% to an estimated $2.7M for a solid $16.8M total from less than 1,000 theaters. A $25-30M final could result. The Saudi Arabia-set political thriller The Kingdom fell by 48% in its fourth outing to an estimated $2.4M. Universal has taken in $44M thus far and should end up with just under $50M which means that the $70M production will need to still work hard overseas and on video in order to break even.

The Milla Jovovich threequel Resident Evil: Extinction tumbled 60% to an estimated $1.1M and raised its sum to a cool $50M. Fox's fantasy adventure The Seeker: The Dark is Rising saw its weekend gross nosedive by an alarming 81% to an estimated $425,000 lifting the dull total to $8.2M with little left to go.

The top ten films grossed an estimated $73.9M which was down 10% from last year when The Prestige debuted in first place with $14.8M; but up 13% from 2005 when Doom opened in the top spot with $15.5M.

Source: www.cinema-pedia.com